AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are down 6 to 7 cents in most contracts on Monday. Rains are making another round throughout the Corn Belt to start the week. The NWS 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are anticipating above average temps for the eastern 2/3 of the Corn Belt. There are chances for the WCB to dry out in the latter portion of that forecast period. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report showed that 1.512 MMT of corn was exported in the week that ended on 6/21. That was 10.04% lower than the week prior but a jump of 55.91% from the same week last year. A total of just 336 MT (13,227 bushels) of sorghum was inspected for export in that week, all to Mexico. Analysts are expecting to see corn conditions steady to 1% lower in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report at 77-78% gd/ex.

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.50 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.59 1/2, down 7 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.71 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.81 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are 18 to 20 cents lower on Monday, with pressure coming from continued trade uncertainty and weather. Front month soy meal is down $5.90/ton, with soybean oil 17 points in the red. The USDA reported a private export sale of 186,000 MT of 17/18 soybeans to unknown destinations through their daily reporting system. That fresh sales news was more than offset by news over the weekend that President Trump is planning to place investment restrictions for other countries on US technology firms. A statement from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says the restrictions are not specific to China, but all countries they suspect are attempting to steal US technology. Export inspections of soybeans in the week of June 21 totaled 514,214 MT. That was a drop of 37.17% from the previous week, but is 56.47% larger than the same week in 2017. Condition ratings are expected to be steady at 73% gd/ex in this week’s report from NASS. Brazilian buyers have slowed down purchases from the interior due to uncertainty about freight costs to get the beans to port.

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $8.76 1/4, down 18 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.81 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.86 1/2, down 19 1/2 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.96 1/4, down 20 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal is at $333.20, down $5.90

Jul 18 Soybean Oil is at $29.04, down $0.17

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing losses of 12 to 17 1/4 cents in the winter wheat contracts, with MPLs down 7 to 8 cents. All wheat export inspections during the week of 6/21 were tallied at 352,836 MT by the USDA this morning. That was 5.75% lower than week prior and down 46.53% from the same time last year. Total inspections for wheat export are at just 1.146 MMT for the first 3 weeks of the 18/19 MY, down 50% from last year. Spring wheat condition ratings are seen at 78% gd/ex, UNCH from last week’s huge jump. Iraq is seeking 50,000 MT of wheat in a tender that closes on July 2, with Australia, Canada, and the US accepted origin.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.78 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.71 1/2, down 17 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.41 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are posting sharp losses on Monday, with Aug flirting with limit lower following the Cattle on Feed report. Feeder cattle futures are sharply lower, down $3.50 to $3.775. The CME feeder cattle index was up 36 cents from the previous day at $142.57 on June 21. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up 77 cents to $217.93, with Select boxes 17 cents lower at $201.85. Cash sales on Friday were $109-110 in most regions. Weekly FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 664,000 head through Saturday. Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed report put June 1 on feed at 11.553 million head, up 4.12% from last year. Placements were slightly larger than a year ago at 2.124 million head, higher than most trade estimates, with marketings at 2.056 million head and up 5.38%. Beef in cold storage at the end of May totaled 465.387 million pounds, down 1.19% from April but 2.74% larger than last year.

Jun 18 Cattle are at $106.300, down $1.975,

Aug 18 Cattle are at $102.925, down $2.975,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $106.425, down $2.975,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.425, down $3.775

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $146.225, down $3.600

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $145.975, down $3.500

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are down 95 cents to $1.425 on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 38 cents to $86.17 on June 21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 19 cents on Monday morning $85.83. The butt primal was up $3.05 and the ham $2.09 higher, as all other primal cuts were lower. The national base carcass price was up 21 cents in the Monday AM report, averaging 80.13. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 2.168 million head for this week. That is down 47,000 head from last week, but up 13,000 head from a year ago. The USDA Cold Storage report showed pork stocks at 621.736 million pounds, down 2.05% from April but up 5.7% from last year. Belly stocks were down 3.9% from last month at 61.188 million pounds.

Jul 18 Hogs are at $78.575, down $1.250,

Aug 18 Hogs are at $73.950, down $1.425

Oct 18 Hogs are at $60.350, down $0.950

Cotton

Cotton futures are showing losses of 29 to 123 points to start the week. Trade concerns are still pressuring the market and traders expecting Friday’s acreage report to show larger planted acreage than March’s intentions report. Friday’s CFTC data showed managed money trimming their cotton net long position by 7,673 contracts to a net position of 81,238 contracts as of Tuesday. The Cotlook A index was up 20 points at 93.60 cents/lb on June 22. The weekly AWP was updated to 78.23 cents/lb for this next week, down 476 points from the week prior.

Jul 18 Cotton is at 84.2, down 123 points,

Oct 18 Cotton is at 85.83, down 51 points

Dec 18 Cotton is at 84.76, down 54 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 84.600, down 29 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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