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Karl Setzer Grain Commentary

Morning Comments; Wednesday, April 25th, 2018

There is a difference of opinion forming surrounding South American production figures. Some analysts claim crop sizes will change little from this point forward given the pace of the harvest that has taken place. Others disagree, and believe double cropped acres will cause production to increase for both Brazil and Argentina. This is mainly from the beneficial weather the crops have experienced over the past several weeks.

The U.S. ethanol industry has received supportive news in recent weeks. Year to date ethanol manufacturing has increased by 2.3%. At the same time ethanol reserves have decreased by a large 5.4%. This is positive news for the industry as it shows demand is rising. At the same time the industry is skeptic of potential changes to government policy, mainly blend rates, that would reduce future ethanol demand.

It is becoming less likely the United States will ship enough soybeans out of country to reach our yearly projection. In order to reach the current estimate the United States will need to load out 26 million bu per week. Historical data indicates weekly soybean loadings from this point forward tend to average 12 million bu per week. This indicates a 260 million bu higher soybean carryout than what is currently being projected.

Market Movers: Fund Activity, Global Weather

For more information, you may contact Karl Setzer at 1-800-383-0003, or e-mail at opinions and views expressed in this commentary are solely those of Karl Setzer. Data used in writing this commentary obtained from various sources believed to be accurate. This commentary is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended for developing specific commodity trading strategies. Any and all risk involved with commodity trading should be determined before establishing a futures position.

Market Commentary provided by:

Karl Setzer, CTA
Grain Solutions Team Leader
MaxYield Cooperative
West Bend, IA 50597

Phone: 515-887-7211