Top Farmer Opening Calls 02-08-18

CORN: Corn futures are mostly unchanged as the trade bides time ahead of today’s USDA Supply/Demand reports. Mar corn is up 1/4 cent to 3.65-1/2 and is now mid-range between the contract’s 100-day moving average support located at 3.57 and the 200-day MA resistance up at 3.75, after tacking on a dime over the past 2-1/2 weeks. Dec corn is steady at 3.94-3/4. The funds bought back around 25,000 corn contracts the past two days, and are now seen short an estimated 81,000 contracts going into today’s USDA Supply/Demand report. Weekly Export Sales, at 1.77 mil tons (70 mil bu), fell within trade estimates, but short of last week’s 1.85 mil ton figure. Conab released their 2017-18 production grain estimates this morning with corn production seen at 88.0 mil metric tons versus 92.3 MMT last month and compared to 97.8 MMT last year. Corn planted area was lowered nearly 600,000 hectares to 16.42 mil hectares. For today’s USDA report U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 2.467 bil bu compared to 2.477 in January. World ending stocks are estimated at 204.2 mil tons compared to 206.6 mil last month. Outside markets show crude steady, the dollar down 11 points, and the closely watched Dow up 132 points.

SOYBEANS:Soybean futures are firm with Mar up 2-3/4 cents to 9.85-3/4 in a narrowing chart formation between the contract’s 200-day moving average support and 100-day MA resistance. Nov beans are up 2 to 10.02-1/2. USDA Weekly Export Sales were above trade guesses coming in at 743,200 tons (27.3 mil bu) for the 2017-18 crop and 8,400 tons for 2018-19. Conab released their 2017-18 production grain estimates this morning with soybeans coming in at 111.6 mil metric tons versus 110.4 MMT last month and compared to 114.1 MMT last year. Soybean yields were estimated down 5.3% from last year. U.S. soybean ending stocks are estimated at 488 mil bu compared to 470 million bu last month. World ending stocks are estimated at 98.3 mil tons compared to 98.6 mil tons previously.

WHEAT: Winter wheat futures are mixed, while consolidating near their new multi-month highs established in the overnight trade. May CBOT wheat, down 1 cent to 4.70, has a new bullish target at last night’s peak at 4.76-3/4. May KC wheat peaked at 4.99 and is down 1-1/2 cents to 4.94-1/4. USDA Weekly Export Sales came in about as expected at 393,400 tons (14.5 mil bu); 22,100 tons for 2018-19. The average estimate for U.S. ending stocks in today’s report is 988 mil bu (937-1.014 compared to 989 mil bu last month. World ending stocks are estimated at 267.6 mil tons compared to 268.0 mil tons in January.

CATTLE:Cattle futures are choppy in early dealings awaiting more cues from the cash market, which has been stagnant so far this week. One lot of heifers sold at $126/cwt in yesterday’s online exchange, same as last week. Feb cattle are up .150 to 125.750. Apr is down .050 to 123.925 and Mar feeders are up .075 to 1548.375.

HOGS:Hog futures are flat/weak in a technically challenged week of trading, after falling out of their higher ranges mid-week. Apr hogs are down .200 to 68.975 with little to no support below current price levels after breaching all the key moving average support in the last four sessions. May hogs are unchanged at 75.10. Nearby Feb hogs are off .100 to 73.750. Lower cutouts and cash hog bids are helping lead the way down in futures, though open interest remains fairly strong.

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