Outside Bullish Reversals
FX Rundown

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Euro (March)

Session close:Gained nearly a penny

Fundamentals:Todays U.S Core CPI was better than expected by one tenth for both YoY at 1.8% and MoM at 0.3%. But guess what, the Dollar lost more than 0.5% on the session and 1% from its swing high. Along with CPI was a very poor read on Retail Sales; headline came in at -0.3% and Core at 0.0%, both missing by 0.5%. This immediately sparked the stagflation argument. First, we want to put stagflation to rest for now as this is the first sharp drop in spending while CPI has been essentially trending lower for the last 18 months. However, yes this raises the fear gauge on stagflation and this coupled with extremely strong technicals in the Euro and extremely weak technicals in the Dollar has encouraged a directional move today. Earlier this morning Eurozone GDP was in line with expectations while Industrial Production was much stronger. Tomorrow is Eurozone Trade Balance data at 4:00 am CT. ECB members Praet and Lautenschlaeger speak at 4:45 am CT and 6:00. U.S PPI is due at 7:30 am CT along with weekly Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing and Philly Fed. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 am CT.

Technicals:Todays outside bullish reversal and move out above major three-star resistance at 1.2434-1.2436 has added fuel to our Bullish Bias.Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


Yen (March)

Session close:Gained about half a penny

Fundamentals:The Yen is moving higher not only on weakness in Asian equity markets but on a deep-seated sentiment shift. There is clear speculation that the Bank of Japan will catch up with other central banks and tighten or taper policy later this year. The hesitance in reappointing BoJ chief Kuroda has been an understated catalyst. It is also likely that a reduced carry trade has added support. On the other side of the coin, extreme Dollar weakness as mentioned above has helped the Yen trade to the highest level since November 2016. Japanese GDP missed expectations last and halted the rally before it was reinvigorated in U.S hours following CPI and Retail Sales. Core Machinery Orders is at 5:50 pm CT and Industrial Production is at 10:30 pm CT.

Technicals:Price action is in a melt-up for the Yen and the bullseye is major three-star resistance, our only level above.Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Aussie (March)

Session close:Gained about half a penny

Fundamentals:Today was a massive whipsaw in the Aussie Dollar upon the release of U.S CPI data. In the end, the Aussie put in a strong session and has seen tremendous strength today along with the commodity sector and Dollar denominated assets. However, the day is just getting started in Australia and Employment Change data is due 6:30 pm CT. Analysts expect an addition of 15,300 jobs.

Technicals:Todays session finished with an extreme outside bullish reversal.Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Canadian (March)

Session close:Gained about half a penny

Fundamentals:Like the other three currencies mentioned, the Canadian put in an extremely strong session on U.S Dollar weakness. This has been a very quiet week on the data front out of Canada, but tomorrow is ADP Employment at 7:30 am CT which is a private read on the heels of last weeks hideous government read. Also, tomorrow Bank of Canada Governor Council Member Schembri speaks at 12:30 pm CT. Crude Oil also reversed sharply from its session low and the EIA inventory report was not bearish. With the price of Oil back above $60 for now this should be supportive to the Canadian.

Technicals:Price action did not settle above resistance at .7996-.8006 but it made its way into this level ahead of the electronic close.Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.